In Apple’s Q2 2011 fiscal results, Apple announced that only 4.7 million iPads were moved for the quarter, and Time Cook went on record for saying that the iPad 2 has the mother of all backlogs and that they’re working to resolve the issue to deliver backlogged iPad 2s to customers worldwide. Apple believes it can meet the increasing demand for Q3, and so does Asymco’s Horace Deidu. The analyst believes Apple could sell up to 9.8 million iPads in Q3, a 200% increase if Apple can meet current demand (which Cook later iterated was not a result of the recent natural and infrastructure disasters in Japan).
Last quarter Apple guided revenue growth at an aggressive 63% with an EPS growth of 47%. They delivered 83% and 93% respectively.
They are now guiding about 47% revenue growth and 43% EPS growth and my current estimates are 65% and 72% respectively based on the following:
- iPhone units: 14.7 million (75%)
- Macs: 4.3 million (25%)
- iPads: 9.8 million (200%)
- iPods: 10.1 million (-15%)
- Music (incl. app) rev. growth: 25%
- Peripherals rev. growth: 25%
- Software rev. growth: 25%
- Total sales: $25.8 billion (65%)
- GM: 38.5%
- EPS: $6.02 (72%)
Horace predicts that Apple will rake in $25.8 billion, compared to Q2 which gave Apple a hefty $24.67 billion. He predicts Apple will still see a decline in iPod sales, but iPhones and Macs will continue to ship like crazy as consumers prepare for a revamped MacBook Air and the launch of the white iPhone. If Apple can meet demand for the iPad 2, I have no doubt that Apple could sell upwards to 9 million iPads for Q3. This follows a report that Apple might not be able to make demand thanks to production issues with the iPad 2’s speaker and display.
